Market sentiment stays positive as U.S. policymakers move closer to reopening the government, while the People’s Republic of China plans measures to ease control over rare earth exports. Recent comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials were less hawkish, supporting cautious optimism even with limited data and a bank holiday in the U.S. and Canada.
The U.S. Senate has approved the bill to end the government shutdown, as expected. The bill now moves to the House of Representatives, where the vote is scheduled for Wednesday at 4 p.m. Eastern Time. Lawmakers are returning to Washington after a 54-day recess. Gold prices have extended their rally, trading above US$4,140.
Markets expect enough votes to end the government shutdown, which lifted stocks sharply.
The division within the Democratic Party increases the likelihood that the Republican Party will retain majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, a scenario generally viewed as favorable for stocks. This political setup also supports gold, as continued fiscal expansion appears likely.
U.S. media outlet PBS reported that Senator John Thune “locked in” an agreement to ensure the shutdown-ending vote passes. Once the Senate vote concludes—expected to begin at 5:30 p.m. local time, or 22:30 GMT—the bill will move to the House of Representatives, where the vote is not expected until Wednesday. Political analysts expect up to eight separate votes during this process.
Former President Donald Trump said a trade deal with the Republic of India is in progress, and the Swiss Confederation announced plans to reduce tariffs from 39% to 15% soon. Trump expressed concern that excessive tariffs, combined with reimbursement costs and investments, could exceed US$2 trillion, posing risks to the U.S. economy ahead of a key Supreme Court decision.
Several Federal Reserve officials also spoke today. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said monetary policy is “in a good place,” explaining that recent rate cuts have supported the labor market and kept inflation pressures under control. Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Myron Miran, a Trump nominee known for his dovish stance after voting for a 50-basis-point rate cut at the last meeting, argued that inflation data is outdated and trending lower, suggesting a more accommodative approach. Federal Reserve’s Musalem noted that economic uncertainty has leveled off, with the labor market cooling slightly but remaining broadly healthy.
In China, authorities are considering a new system to speed up rare earth exports, reportedly designed to prevent the U.S. military from obtaining China’s rare earth magnets.
Elsewhere, the Japanese yen weakened further, prompting mild verbal intervention from Japan’s Economy Minister Kiuchi, who said high inflation is eroding household purchasing power and that the weak yen is raising import costs and consumer prices. He announced plans to expand aid for vulnerable households and provide energy relief. Kiuchi reaffirmed the government’s goal of achieving wage growth that exceeds inflation to restore real income and sustain consumption. Despite this, the yen saw little support, with USD/JPY climbing to around 154.50, its highest level since February.
In the UK, consumer spending slowed in October as households delayed major purchases ahead of the government’s autumn budget and upcoming Black Friday promotions. According to Barclays, which processes nearly 40% of UK card transactions, spending on credit and debit cards fell 0.8% year-on-year, mainly due to lower fuel and grocery outlays. The data highlights weakening demand ahead of possible tax increases that could weigh on retail sales and economic growth later this month.
In Australia, consumer sentiment rose sharply in November. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index surged 12.8% to 103.8, entering net optimism for the first time in nearly four years.
Meanwhile, the separate ANZ-Roy Morgan weekly index stayed near a 12-month low at 83.5. Respondents expressed optimism about the economy and job security, and expectations for housing prices rose further. Westpac called the result “extraordinary and somewhat surprising.”
Australian business conditions also improved in October, with the National Australia Bank (NAB) Index climbing to +9, the highest since March, as firms reported stronger sales and profits and easing cost pressures.
On Tuesday, the U.S. debt market will be closed in observance of Veterans Day, though the U.S. stock market will remain open.
Bloomberg reported that two U.S. Senators—John Boozman (Republican, Arkansas), Chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee, and Cory Booker (Democrat, New Jersey)—introduced a bipartisan draft bill to transfer primary oversight of the cryptocurrency industry from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The proposal would give the CFTC authority to regulate cryptocurrency market structure, classify most tokens as digital commodities, require registration for certain firms, and impose disclosure and transaction fees.
Amid these developments, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remains steady after pausing a three-day decline. EURUSD lacks a clear direction after ending a three-day rise, GBPUSD recorded its first daily loss in four sessions, and USDJPY extended its three-day winning streak, reaching a nine-month high before easing slightly. AUDUSD and NZDUSD reversed Monday’s gains, while USDCAD ended its two-day decline. Crude oil prices rose after two days of losses. Gold prices stayed firm for the third consecutive day, reaching their highest level since October 24. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) struggled to extend its two-day winning streak, and Ethereum (ETH) remained flat after a minor loss.
EURUSD shows no clear direction, mirroring the USD’s subdued trading amid a quiet economic calendar and mixed headlines. Meanwhile, USDJPY touched a new nine-month high before easing slightly during its three-day winning streak. Recent news from Japan did little to attract yen buyers, as market sentiment stayed positive on expectations of additional stimulus from the new Prime Minister and growing doubts about further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
Weak UK consumer spending data, concerns about slowing employment, and a cautious mood ahead of the November 26 UK budget have all combined to halt GBP/USD’s four-day winning streak, even as the USD shows little strength. Adding to the pressure, investor caution ahead of key UK employment and growth data due Tuesday and Thursday is also weighing on the pound.
Mixed Australian data, a broadly cautious market mood, and a pullback in crude oil prices—the main Canadian export—are weighing on the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD), and Canadian Dollar (CAD), despite overall optimism and positive news from China. As a result, AUDUSD and NZDUSD have both reversed their previous day’s gains, while USDCAD has rebounded from its weekly low after a two-day decline.
Gold posts a three-day uptrend to hit a two-week high despite the market’s slight inaction early Tuesday, mainly due to the sluggish USD and growing confidence about the U.S. government reopening. Further, positive news from China, one of the world’s biggest gold customers, also underpins the run-up in the XAU prices.
Meanwhile, Crude Oil snaps two-day winning streak with mild losses as the USD stalls, further weakness, and the market turns dicey after a strong rise in optimism. That said, a cautious mood ahead of the U.S. weekly inventory data also contributes to the black gold’s latest weakness.
The cryptocurrency market struggled to hold onto the previous day’s gains and showed little reaction to the positive news that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) may take over primary oversight from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)—a move welcomed by the industry. The hesitation likely reflects a cautious mood ahead of today’s U.S. government reopening vote and the release of long-delayed economic data.
Meanwhile, Asia-Pacific equities traded higher, tracking Wall Street’s strong performance. The NASDAQ Index posted its best session since May 27, rising 2.27%, while the S&P 500 Index gained 1.54%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.81%.
With bank holidays in both Canada and the United States, trading activity is expected to be subdued on Tuesday. Still, political developments will remain in sharp focus as investors monitor progress toward ending the historic U.S. government shutdown. Market participants are closely watching for bipartisan cooperation and the final approval of the stopgap funding bill, which has already passed the Senate and now faces a crucial vote in the House of Representatives.
A risk-positive outcome—such as clear steps toward fully reopening the government—could drive further gains in Gold, Antipodean currencies (Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar), and major Cryptocurrencies, as improved sentiment tends to support both risk assets and alternatives. However, while optimism may spike briefly after the Senate vote, lingering uncertainty until the House gives its approval could restrain market enthusiasm and keep investors cautious in the near term.
Meanwhile, the possibility of a weak UK jobs report, combined with already cautious market sentiment, may continue to weigh on GBPUSD, extending its recent retreat.
May the trading luck be with you!
