GBPUSD stays pressured toward 1.2600 amid Good Friday inaction, focus on US data/events

The trading momentum remains dicey amid the Good Friday holidays in major markets. Also challenging the moves could be the anxiety ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data for February, as well as a speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

Even so, the US Dollar remains well-set for the third consecutive weekly gains while the other major currencies remain pressured. That said, EURUSD drops to the lowest level in five weeks while the GBPUSD holds lower grounds near the weekly bottom marked the previous day.

USDJPY struggles to extend the previous day’s recovery while the AUDUSD stays depressed at a three-week low. Further, NZDUSD bears keep the reins at the lowest level since mid-November 2023 whereas USDCAD snaps a four-day losing streak. It should be observed that the USDCHF ignores the firmer US Dollar to print a three-day pullback from a five-month high by posting mild losses near the 0.9000 threshold.

Moving on, Gold price retreats from the highest level on record, bracing for the second consecutive weekly gain, while WTI Crude Oil hovers around the multi-month high and Brent Oil licks its wounds at the weekly top after rising the most in a fortnight.

Elsewhere, BTCUSD and ETHUSD stay on the way to posting the first weekly gain in three despite portraying lackluster moves so far.

Following are the latest moves of the key assets:

• Brent oil remains on the way to posting a third weekly gain, close to $87.70 at the latest.
• Gold price retreats from the all-time high of $2,236 to $2,222 by the press time.
• USD Index stays on the front foot at the weekly high of near 104.65 as we write.
• Wall Street mixed even as S&P and Dow Jones ended the day near the record top while the Asia-Pacific stocks also edged lower. Further, the shares in Europe and the UK remain dicey during the initial hour.
• BTCUSD and ETHUSD both reverse the previous day’s gains by falling nearly 1.0% each to around $69,800 and $3,575 at the latest.

US Dollar stays firmer ahead of top-tier US catalysts…

US Dollar Index (DXY) rose to a six-week high on Thursday while tracing upbeat yields on mostly favorable US data. That said, the Greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies edges higher so far on Good Friday amid sluggish momentum and cautious mood ahead of the key US catalysts.

On Thursday, the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment for March jumped to a 32-month high in its final reading while the last estimate of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2023 also came in better than the initial forecast of 3.2% by rising to 3.4% annualized.

While the US Dollar stays firmer, the EURUSD bears the burden of downbeat German data and the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers’ push for early rate cuts. Meanwhile, GBPUSD fails to cheer hawkish comments from Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Jonathan Haskel as final readings of the UK Q4 GDP confirm economic contraction.

Further, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD justify their risk-barometer status and the firmer US Dollar, especially when the domestic clues aren’t so promising. That said, a mixed bag of data from Japan and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials’ pushback to more rate hikes challenge the USDJPY traders as the quote braces for the first weekly loss in three.

On a different page, fears of a supply crunch allowed Crude oil to post the biggest daily gain in a week despite a strong US Dollar. On the same line was the Gold price that reached an all-time high, before today’s retreat, by crossing the key technical hurdle.

• Strong buy: USDCAD, USDJPY
• Strong sell: Crude Oil, US Dollar, GBPUSD
• Buy: BTCUSD, ETHUSD, Nasdaq, Gold
• Sell: DAX, FTSE 100, BTCUSD, AUDUSD, EURUSD

All eyes on the US Core PCE Price Index and Fed Chair Powell…

Although most markets are off today, the scheduled releases of the US Core PCE Price Index, also known as the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, will join a speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to keep traders on their toes. That said, a wild move due to the likely upbeat US data and Powell’s hawkish remarks favoring the US Dollar and activating a pullback in the commodities can’t be ruled out.

May the trading luck be with you!