USDJPY slumps to seven-month low amid risk aversion, hawkish BoJ bias
USDJPY begins the week on a back foot while declining for the fifth consecutive day to the lowest since early January. The Yen pair’s latest fall could be linked to the market’s risk-off mood and concerns about the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) further rate hikes versus the fresh bias about the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) requirement for more rate cuts. Also keeping the bears hopeful is the quote’s clear downside break of an upward-sloping support line from January 2023.
With this, USDJPY bears are completely in control and can move further toward the late 2023 bottom of around 140.25, quickly followed by the 140.00 threshold. However, the oversold RSI (14) line and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s January 2023 to July 2024 upside, near 140.40, can challenge the quote’s further declines. If the pair drops past 140.00, the odds of witnessing a slump toward July 2023 low of near 137.20 can’t be ruled out.
Meanwhile, the USDJPY pair’s corrective bounce needs validation from a 50% Fibonacci ratio of 144.55. Following that, the lows marked during February and March of the current year, respectively near 145.90 and 146.50, will precede the multi-month-old support-turned-resistance of surrounding 148.60 to challenge the Yen pair buyers. It’s worth mentioning, however, that the rejection of the latest bearish trend signals will only be possible if the quote stays successfully above the 200-SMA hurdle of 151.60.
Overall, the USDJPY pair sneaked into the bearish trend but the road toward the south is long and bumpy.
