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MTrading Team • 2023-06-27

USDCAD has more downside room as Canada inflation looms

USDCAD has more downside room as Canada inflation looms

USDCAD remains depressed at the year-to-date levels ahead of Canada inflation and US Durable Goods Orders. It’s worth noting that the Loonie pair bears have little fundamental, as well as technical support unless witnessing a corrective bounce. That said, the oversold RSI appears the first catalyst suggesting a rebound in the pair price. With this, a one-month-old falling trend line, around 1.3165 by the press time, precedes the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its August-October 2022 upside, near 1.3210, to restrict the short-term upside of the pair. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 1.3210, the previous support line stretched from November 2022, close to 1.3350, and the piercing of the 50-EMA to the 200-EMA from above near 1.3400, will act as the last defense of the bears.

On the contrary, strong Canada inflation and the downbeat US data may allow the USDCAD bears to keep the reins despite an oversold RSI. The same highlights the 1.3000 and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2990 as the next targets for the Loonie pair bears. Should the pair sellers keep dominating past 1.2990, the September 2022 bottom of near 1.2950 will challenge the sellers before directing the pair towards the late 2022 trough close to 1.2725.

Overall, the USDCAD bears are likely to stay in the driver’s seat even if a short-term bounce is very much likely.

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