Gold consolidates the previous four-week uptrend by retreating from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the June-July move from Monday itself. However, a convergence of the 100 and 200 EMAs, around $1,775, appears a tough nut to crack for the bears waiting for the Fed Minutes. Also acting as a downside filter is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level close to $1,755. In a case where the XAUUSD remains weak past $1,755, the odds of its fall towards the previous resistance line from early June, around $1,705, can’t be ruled out.
Meanwhile, gold’s recovery needs to cross the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at around $1,804 to convince buyers. Even so, a two-week-old upward sloping resistance line, close to $1,823, could test the upside momentum. It’s worth observing that the metal’s sustained run-up beyond $1,823 enables it to aim for the mid-June swing high surrounding $1,858.00.
Overall, gold bears appear to keep reins but a clear downside break of $1,775 becomes necessary, not to forget the need for hawkish Minutes.
