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Denis Sergienko • 2022-12-14

EURUSD juggles near six-month high ahead of Fed meeting

EURUSD juggles near six-month high ahead of Fed meeting

Downbeat US inflation data propelled the EURUSD pair to the highest levels since June on Tuesday. However, the upper line of the one-month-old bullish channel, currently around 1.0670, probed the pair buyers at the multi-day top. Also challenging the Euro bulls is the overbought RSI conditions suggesting a pullback in prices. As a result, an upward-sloping trend line from the December start, close to 1.0520 at the latest, can’t be ruled out. However, 100-SMA and the bottom of the stated channel, respectively near 1.0450 and 1.0400, could challenge the pair sellers afterward. In a case where the Fed sounds too hawkish and the pair defies the bullish chart pattern, a slump towards the 200-SMA and then to the late October swing high, near 1.0275 and 1.0090 in that order, can’t be ruled out.

Meanwhile, successful trading beyond the immediate hurdle, namely the aforementioned channel’s top near 1.0670, could get another chance to retreat near the 1.0700 threshold due to the consistently overbought RSI. In a case where EURUSD bulls ignore RSI and cross the 1.0700 resistance, May’s peak near 1.0785 and March’s low surrounding 1.0805 could act as the last defenses of the pair sellers. That said, the pair’s sustained trading beyond 1.0800 may target a late April high near 1.0935 and the 1.1000 round figure.

Overall, EURUSD bulls are likely to occupy the driver’s seat unless the US Federal Reserve appears too hawkish, which is less anticipated.

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