Risk sentiment remains slightly positive early Thursday as U.S. President Donald Trump signed a bill to end the historic government shutdown. The move was widely expected after the stopgap funding bill passed the Senate and House. Positive news about data and SNAP benefits also boosted optimism. However, mixed comments from the Federal Reserve, trade updates from China, Europe, and Switzerland, and economic data from Australia, New Zealand, and Japan tempered the mood, as markets remain cautious ahead of key U.S. inflation and jobs data soon.
Trump signed the bill reopening the U.S. government, which will be funded until the end of January. He acknowledged the shutdown caused significant damage, estimating the cost at $1.5 trillion, with full effects still to be calculated. He also called for ending the filibuster and emphasized that the government should never shut down again. Trump advocated for direct payments and affordable healthcare for citizens.
The bill passed the Senate 60-40 earlier this week and then passed the House 222-209. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced that full SNAP benefits will resume within 24 hours. The White House indicated that the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) and jobs data may not be released, but the September data will be.
On the Federal Reserve front, Boston Fed President Susan Collins noted that keeping rates on hold for a while is likely appropriate due to inflation concerns. She emphasized that maintaining a mildly restrictive policy is necessary to ease price pressures. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic also commented that the current policy is too restrictive, as businesses report challenges. Bostic, who will retire in February, added that the Fed will need to expand reserves soon. Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams suggested it won’t be long before the Fed needs to act again.
In China, Vice Premier He Lifeng, appointed to lead U.S. trade talks, expressed optimism about U.S.-China trade relations, though uncertainties remain. He stated that both countries have significant potential for cooperation.
In Europe, the Financial Times reported that the EU plans to tighten limits on cheap Chinese parcels and is working on a draft plan to secure broader tariff relief, focusing on five areas, including tariffs, market access, and steel and aluminum cooperation with the U.S.
Japanese companies are generally positive about the business outlook under new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, despite concerns over her minority government. Japan’s October wholesale inflation eased slightly to 2.7% year-on-year from 2.8% in September. The Bank of Japan is watching closely whether price gains are driven by demand. The October Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.4% month-on-month, above expectations. Takaichi’s government is focused on boosting the economy to increase tax revenues without raising taxes. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated the need for moderate inflation and wage growth to support economic recovery.
In Australia, inflation expectations for November dropped slightly to 4.5%, down from 4.8%. The country’s job market data showed the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%, below the expected 4.4%, and full-time jobs surged. Despite the strong labor data, Australian shares fell, with the S&P/ASX 200 hitting its lowest in three months. The Reserve Bank of Australia is no longer expected to cut rates in December, with market expectations now at only 20%.
New Zealand saw a small rise in retail spending in October, with electronic card transactions up 0.2% month-on-month. Yearly growth was stronger at 0.8%, though analysts noted that households remain cautious due to high borrowing costs.
Switzerland is finalizing a deal in Washington to secure a 15% tariff reduction on its exports, with top ministers involved in final negotiations.
In Canada, building permits rose 4.5% in September, well above the expected 1.0% increase.
OPEC reported that the oil market is expected to be nearly balanced in 2026, with a slight surplus projected. Output dropped by 73,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October, led by a decline in Kazakhstan. OPEC plans to pause production hikes in Q1 2026 due to low prices and seasonal demand drops. Crude oil prices have been under pressure, falling to $60.16 per barrel.
The Japan Exchange Group (JPX) is reviewing new measures to address companies holding large amounts of cryptocurrencies in their treasuries, following concerns about governance risks after sharp drops in such companies' share prices. The JPX is monitoring firms with significant digital-asset holdings to protect investors.
In currency markets, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remains weak at its weekly low after a modest positive close. EURUSD holds near a two-week high, while GBPUSD sees a three-day losing streak. USDJPY stays firm, hitting the highest level since February. AUDUSD reaches a two-week high, extending gains after strong Aussie data. NZDUSD snaps its three-day uptrend but breaks a four-day losing streak. Crude oil remains under pressure, while gold sees a five-day uptrend. Bitcoin and Ethereum post their first daily gains in several days. Asian-Pacific equities edge higher despite mixed Wall Street closes, with the Dow hitting a new record.
EURUSD paused its two-day winning streak at a two-week high as optimism after the U.S. government reopened quickly faded amid renewed concerns about central bank actions following the release of delayed economic data. The upcoming U.S. inflation and mid-tier employment reports are expected to attract immediate attention. At the same time, uncertainty over the European Union’s trade plan, caution ahead of EU industrial production data, and speeches from several European Central Bank policymakers, along with ongoing geopolitical tensions involving Ukraine and China, are weighing on EURUSD sentiment.
GBPUSD is under pressure from early-week data and a cautious mood ahead of the November 26 UK budget, falling for the third consecutive day despite a lacklustre USD. Meanwhile, USDJPY remains mildly bid during its five-day uptrend, having hit the highest level since February the previous day. Mixed signals from the Bank of Japan, Japanese economic data, and stimulus news are also supporting USDJPY alongside broader market optimism.
AUDUSD extends gains for the second consecutive day, reaching a two-week high as strong Australian data challenges expectations of a Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut. Meanwhile, NZDUSD drops for the first time in four days, failing to respond positively to New Zealand’s spending data. USDCAD rebounds from a weekly low, ending a four-day losing streak, as crude oil prices, Canada’s key export, fell the most in a month.
A slightly smaller-than-expected crude oil inventory build, according to the API’s weekly data, combined with the OPEC report, triggered a corrective bounce in oil after its biggest daily drop in a month. Meanwhile, gold prices remain firm for the fifth consecutive day as market anxiety over upcoming data releases and potential trader reactions supports demand. The USD’s continued struggle to rebound also favors gold’s safe-haven appeal.
Bitcoin and Ethereum posted their first daily gains in three and four days, respectively, as cryptocurrencies remained optimistic following the U.S. government reopening. However, concerns about the Federal Reserve and upcoming economic data limited further upside for the digital assets.
On Wall Street, trading started Wednesday on a firmer note but later trimmed some gains, ending the day mixed. AMD shares surged 10%, while healthcare and industrials performed well. The Nasdaq fell 0.26%, the Dow Industrial Average reached a new record high, rising 0.68%, and the S&P 500 remained flat. Microsoft closed higher after announcing it would integrate OpenAI’s custom AI chip designs into its semiconductor strategy.
With the U.S. government reopening, several U.S. economic data releases are expected today, and updates on pending statistics could keep traders busy on Thursday. This may support risk assets such as equities, cryptocurrencies, and the antipodeans. However, gold could retreat if the USD strengthens, as Federal Reserve sentiment remains neutral.
Meanwhile, UK GDP and mid-tier EU economic prints are also being closely watched for guidance. Against this backdrop, EURUSD may pull back from a seven-week resistance, GBPUSD could decline further, USDJPY may remain firm, and the antipodean currencies could weaken unless risk appetite strengthens significantly and weighs on the USD.
May the trading luck be with you!
