Be it sustained trading below the 3.5-month-old ascending trend line or the bearish MACD signals and downbeat RSI (14), not oversold, the EURUSD pair has it all to lure bears as first readings of Eurozone Q4 GDP and US CPI for January loom. Even so, the pair’s latest run-up beyond the 50-DMA hurdle seems to challenge the bears. That said, the quote’s fresh selling should wait for a clear downside break of the 50-DMA support of 1.0700 to aim for the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of November 2022 to February 2023 upside, near 1.0530. However, the previous monthly low near 1.0400 and the 100-DMA level surrounding 1.0370 could act as the last defense of the bears afterward.
Alternatively, the late 2022 peak around 1.0740 and the support-turned-resistance line from November, close to 1.0950, could probe the EURUSD buyers in case the data favors Euro buyers and the US Dollar sellers. It’s worth observing that the 1.1000 round figure and the current monthly high of 1.1033 are likely to act as additional upside filters during the pair’s run-up beyond 1.0950.
Overall, EURUSD is on the bear’s radar as traders await important catalysts. It should be observed, however, that the volatility around the scheduled events is likely to be high and hence traders should wait for markets to stabilize after the data before taking any major positions.
