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MTrading Team • 2023-08-09

AUDUSD downside hinges on 0.6470 breakdown and Aussie/US inflation

AUDUSD downside hinges on 0.6470 breakdown and Aussie/US inflation

A clear downside break of the 10-month-old rising support line teases the AUDUSD bears as China releases mixed inflation data from July. Even so, an ascending trend line from early November 2022, close to 0.6470, could join the nearly oversold RSI to challenge the Aussie bears. Following that, a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of October 2022 to February 2023 upside, near 0.6375, may act as the final defense of the bulls before the late 2022 low of 0.6170 gains attention.

Meanwhile, AUDUSD needs to provide a daily closing beyond the support-turned-resistance line, near 0.6540 at the latest, to recall buyers. Following that, a three-week-old falling resistance line, around 0.6650, could check the upside momentum ahead of targeting May’s peak of around 0.6820. It’s worth noting, however, that the double tops surrounding 0.6900 become the key hurdle to the north for the pair buyers to crack for conviction.

Overall, AUDUSD slips into the bear’s radar but the road towards the south is long. That said, Thursday’s Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations for August and the all-important US Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be crucial for the pair traders to watch for clear directions.

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